As expected, not a particularly daring budget, with some obvious “delays” in decisions until after the General Election.

At the higher end of tax, in addition to the previous increases announced there is no change to the Inheritance Tax nil rate band for four years. It is now essential that anyone with an estate anywhere near the current band seeks sensible advice to mitigate or plan for any tax – it is clear there is no more help coming from the Government.

Although the clampdown on tax avoidance is currently focussed offshore, and the specific agreement with Belize is political point scoring, this will undoubtedly move back to the UK. There has never been a better time to consider the remaining opportunities before loopholes are closed.

Key points of the Budget:

• Stamp duty – 0% for homes under £250k for first time buyers, but an increase to a new 5% rate for homes over £1 million from 6th April 2011.
• Tax allowances for those earning over £100,000 gradually removed
• No changes to VAT or income tax planned
• Inheritance tax threshold frozen for four years
• Increase in Entrepreneurs Relief to £2m
• ISA limits will increase with inflation in future years, £10200 per person from Tax Year 2010
• Clampdown on tax avoidance to raise £500m
• New tax agreements with Belize, Grenada and Dominica
• 3p fuel duty rise to be phased in between April and January 2011
• Duty on cider to rise by 10% above inflation from Sunday
• Wine, beer and spirit duty up 2% a year until 2013
• Tobacco duty up 1% this year and 2% a year in future years
• no change to CGT
• Pension Lifetime Allowance of £1.8 million and Annual Allowance of £255,000 will continue to apply at these levels for a further five tax years, i.e. up to and including the tax year 2015-16.
• NIC rates increases that had been announced in PBR 2008 and 2009 to go ahead (the doc attached covers all of these)

Full Budget Details

Nothing of any great surprise or substance, unless you have a wind turbine, are looking for an electric company vehicle or are classified as a “banker”:

TAX

• Personal allowances frozen at 2009/10 levels
• Inheritance tax nil rate threshold frozen at £325,000
• 1p increase in corporation tax for small companies to be deferred
• All national insurance rates to rise by a further 0.5% from April 2011
• Pensions higher rate tax relief further restricted for incomes over £130,000
• VAT to return to 17.5% from 15% from 1 January 2010.
• One-off 50% tax on banker’s bonuses of more than £25,000
• Stamp duty holiday on certain properties to end on 1 January 2010
• Bingo duty to be cut from 22% to 20%

PENSIONS AND BENEFITS

• Basic state pension will rise by 2.5% in April 2010
• Contributions to public sector pensions to be cut by £1bn a year

ECONOMIC FORECASTS

• Growth of 1%-1.5% expected in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011 and 2012

• Estimated public loss from bank bailouts reduced from £50bn to £10bn

• Total spending in 2010-11 to rise by £31bn

OTHER

• Electric cars to be exempt from company car tax for five years

• New 50p tax on landline phones to pay for superfast broadband

Central banks are trying increasingly radical methods of stimulating their economies. The Bank of England announced a programme of quantitative easing intended to encourage commercial banks to revive lending activity. The measures involve the purchase of £75 billion-worth of commercial banks’ assets, which will be financed with newly created money. Meanwhile, the Fed announced plans to inject almost US$1.2 trillion of newly created money into the US economy in order to help kick-start bank lending, revive the housing market and lead to economic recovery. Nevertheless, export growth is still on the wane in the UK, US, China and Germany, reflecting the decline in worldwide demand, and the World Bank expects the global economy to decline for the first time since the Second World War during 2009.

After reaching a 12-year low during early March, share prices in the US rose in the latter part of the month, led higher by the financial sector. This rally followed the announcement of further measures to alleviate the effects of toxic assets upon American banks, and news of better-than-expected new home sales.

Equities advanced in the UK during March; however, their rise was relatively muted, dampened by a raft of disappointing corporate profits announcements and yet more negative economic news. Share prices in Europe posted relatively strong gains overall, although underlying country performance was mixed, reflecting the fortunes of individual companies and a welter of overwhelmingly negative economic data.

Most Asian markets posted strong gains during March, buoyed by hopes that the world might emerge from recession sooner than expected. In particular, financial stocks rallied on the news of the Fed’s quantitative easing measures. Japan announced further measures intended to stimulate flagging economic growth, although Japan’s substantial public debt is likely to hamper its scope to boost its economy. Meanwhile, Japanese exporters were heartened by a weakening in the yen ahead of the fiscal year end, amid mounting hopes that the global financial crisis might be on the wane.

The true cost of the sub-prime mortgage meltdown

2007 was the year in which the US sub-prime mortgage sector collapsed, triggering worldwide problems within the financial system. However, 2008 was the year in which governments, businesses and individuals became fully aware of the consequences of the sub-prime debacle amid the development of a worldwide credit crunch.

As the year progressed, investors and governments realised that the problems faced by financial institutions were even more extensive and serious than had previously been thought. Moreover, it became clear that these problems would not remain confined to the financial sector, but would affect almost every business and household. During 2008, confidence in the financial system has collapsed, share prices have plummeted and governments and central banks have striven to boost confidence in the financial system and kick-start lending activity.

A banking sector in disarray

The collapse of sub-prime and the subsequent credit crisis led to massive changes in the structure of the global financial sector, not to mention wholesale redundancies. JP Morgan bought troubled investment bank Bear Stearns in a deal underwritten by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), while American International Group (AIG) was bailed out in order to avoid the risk of meltdown in the global financial sector. However, 158-year-old Lehman Brothers was allowed to collapse in a move that shook the sector. Merrill Lynch was taken over unexpectedly by Bank of America, and venerable investment banks such as Goldman Sachs decided to transform themselves into ordinary bank holding companies in order to allow themselves the chance to benefit from Treasury funding if necessary. Meanwhile, in the UK, mortgage banks Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley were nationalised by the British government and Lloyds TSB launched a takeover bid for HBOS.

Iceland hit the headlines in the autumn following a raft of bank failures that strained relationships between London and Reykjavik amid concerns that Iceland was refusing to guarantee the deposits of UK-based savers. This controversy, combined with Northern Rock’s collapse in 2007 and subsequent concerns about toxic debt within the banking system, triggered new debate about compensation schemes for savers.

Global stock markets experienced heavy losses

Financial markets experienced wild swings during 2008, and movements of four per cent in a single day were not uncommon towards the end of the year. The MSCI World Index fell by over 40% during 2008, and every major market experienced heavy losses, with the American stock market plumbing depths not seen for over five years. Corporate profits are under pressure; companies are cutting or cancelling dividends, and high levels of redundancies are swelling unemployment statistics as firms do whatever they can to cut costs, shore up their profits and stay afloat. Higher unemployment is likely to compound pressure on economic growth as consumers tighten their belts and stop unnecessary spending.

Propping up the financial system

Amid the financial and economic turmoil, governments and central banks have worked hard to prop up the financial system. After some political wrangling, the US agreed a rescue package worth US$700 billion intended to help bring back confidence in the financial system and encourage banks to restart lending activity. A subsequent package worth a further US$800 billion was agreed in November. The European Commission announced a spending plan to boost the eurozone economy worth €200 billion, while the UK government announced measures to help shore up the UK economy in its annual pre-budget report.

Interest rates tumbled

Interest rates provided some of the most dramatic headlines during 2008. UK interest rates began the year at 5%, and ended the year at 2% – their lowest level for over 50 years – amid growing fears about the risk of deflation and concerns about the worse-than-expected economic downturn. Meanwhile, American interest rates reached an all-time low of 0.25% as the Fed attempted to kick-start economic growth and control price stability. The Fed’s actions have increased speculation that the Bank of Japan might cut Japanese interest rates from their current level of 0.3%. Elsewhere, interest rates in the eurozone ended the year at 2.5%, but have been tipped to fall as low as 1.75% during 2009.*

So what will 2009 bring?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects world economic growth to slow from 5% in 2007 to 3.75% during 2008 and to just over 2% in 2009, and this decline is likely to be led by the major economies. The IMF expects the UK economy to experience a particularly significant decline of 1.3% during 2009, while, the all-important US economy is forecast to contract by 0.7% next year. **

Although analysts still await official confirmation, the UK and US economies are widely considered to have fallen into recession some months ago, and this has already been discounted in share prices. Nevertheless, businesses, investors and analysts remain preoccupied by the possible length and severity of the recession, and are likely to keep a sharp lookout for evidence that the economy is either improving or deteriorating. As we say goodbye to 2008 and head into 2009, this uncertainty is likely to keep investors’ nerves on edge, and ensure that share-price performance remains volatile.

Sources:

* Bloomberg, 15 Dec 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azuNjokrEk88&refer=home

** International Monetary Fund, 6 Nov 2008
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/update/03/index.htm#table1